| dc.description.abstract | Characterizing and forecasting the evolution of slope movements are highly studied
topics due to the possible consequences of landslides on buildings, infrastructures
and in terms of loss of life. The international scientific literature provides detailed
analysis and modelling of specific phenomena, whereas a generalized procedure
aimed at identifying common properties of landslides is lacking.
In this thesis a general framework for understanding typical behaviours of slope
movements is presented, with the aim of classifying stages of activity of landslides
and predicting their time evolution. For this purpose, monitoring displacement data
are collected for several case studies from literature that differ in materials, geometry
and triggering factors. These data are analysed referring to single activity stages,
selected on the basis of geometric properties of data series and on variations of
triggering causes. Thereafter, displacement dimensionless diagrams are constructed,
allowing the identification of some trends, each characterized by common growth
properties related only to the evolutive stage not depending on the specific
characteristics in terms of dimensions, geometry, materials and so on.
Dimensionless trends are analysed through the derivatives of displacement function
up to the third order, namely velocity, acceleration and jerk. Sign and growth
properties of derivatives allow identifying common characteristics in the evolution
of landslides. Hence, an appropriate interpolating function of displacement data is
introduced in order to develop a forecasting algorithm able to establish alert levels
useful in early warning systems.
This procedure is applied to the cases from literature and to La Saxe rockslide
(Courmayeur, Valle d’Aosta, Italy) for which continuous monitoring data are
available with a sampling frequency of one hour. Dimensionless trends are obtained
in terms of displacements, velocities, accelerations and jerks, showing a satisfying
correlation with actual time evolution of landslide motions. In addition the
forecasting algorithm is applied to an important failure that locally involved La Saxe
rockslide and to some instabilities in an open pit mine, showing the capability of the
method in establishing useful alert levels. [edited by Author] | it_IT |
