The tragedy of the global commons in the age of artificial intelligence: Illegal mining, transnational crime, and the future of EU global enforcement

Abstract

Illegal mining and natural resource extraction represent one of the most complex and underexamined dimensions of transnational organized crime, intersecting with drug trafficking, terrorism, human trafficking, money laundering, and environmental degradation. Drawing on Hardin’s (1968) tragedy of the commons and Ostrom‘s (1990) analysis of collective action problems, this article argues that global resource scarcity creates structural incentives for illicit exploitation that existing international and European Union legal frameworks are increasingly unable to contain. The erosion of the rules-based international order under renewed power politics, the withdrawal of the United States from multilateral governance, and the consolidation of rival geopolitical blocs further compound enforcement failures by eliminating the cooperative conditions on which international law depends. Against this backdrop, artificial intelligence is transforming transnational crime on every front: criminal networks deploy AI to evade financial controls, fabricate supply chain documentation, and optimize smuggling logistics, while law enforcement agencies are developing AI-driven tools for satellite environmental monitoring, financial intelligence, predictive network analysis, and prosecutorial support. The European Union, through an emerging architecture of supply chain due diligence law, antimoney laundering regulation, and AI governance, is positioned to lead global efforts to address AI-enabled transnational resource crime. This article examines how the EU can integrate these instruments into a coherent enforcement framework, extend their reach through external action, and lead the reform of international legal institutions inadequate to the demands of the AI era.